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Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?

DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1105801, PP. 1-6

Subject Areas: Economics, Behavioral Economics

Keywords: Inflation Forecasting, Professional Forecasters, Central Banks, Luck

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Abstract

The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.

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Silva, S. D. , Matsushita, R. and Fernández, G. (2019). Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?. Open Access Library Journal, 6, e5801. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1105801.

References

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[5]  Warren, P.A., Gostoli, U., Farmer, G.D., El-Deredy, W. and Hahn, U. (2018) A Re-Examination of “Bias” in Human Randomness Perception. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 44, 663-680.
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