全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?

DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1105801, PP. 1-6

Subject Areas: Economics, Behavioral Economics

Keywords: Inflation Forecasting, Professional Forecasters, Central Banks, Luck

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract

The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the The Central Bank of Brazil annually rewards the top 5 private forecasters of the long run price index “aiming at improving their predictive ability.” We review the evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.evidence of their performance and cannot reject the hypothesis that the forecasters enter the top 5 list randomly.

Cite this paper

Silva, S. D. , Matsushita, R. and Fernández, G. (2019). Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?. Open Access Library Journal, 6, e5801. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1105801.

References

[1]  Bogdanski, J., Tombini, A.A. and Werlang, S.R.C. (2000) Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil. Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper No. 1.
https://www.bcb.gov.br/ingles/public/wps/wps01.pdf https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.247507
[2]  Cochran, W.G. (1977) Sampling Techniques. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
[3]  Keilson, J. (1967) On Global Extrema for a Class of Symmetric Functions. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 18, 218-228.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(67)90052-2
[4]  Da Silva, E. and Da Silva, S. (2015) Anchoring Heuristic Messes with Inflation Targeting. Open Access Library Journal, 2, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1101450
[5]  Warren, P.A., Gostoli, U., Farmer, G.D., El-Deredy, W. and Hahn, U. (2018) A Re-Examination of “Bias” in Human Randomness Perception. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 44, 663-680.
https://doi.org/10.1037/xhp0000462
[6]  Rabin, M. (2002) Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 775-816. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302760193896

Full-Text


comments powered by Disqus

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133

WeChat 1538708413