Causal explanations are often favored to explain club performance in soccer tournaments, and the role that luck plays is usually neglected. Here, we consider three recent seasons of the first-division Brazilian soccer league to examine the relative importance to club success of loss aversion (a causal explanation) and regression to the mean (luck). We find that club performance depends on both, and quantify this finding.
Cite this paper
Esquierro, L. and Silva, S. D. (2019). Role of Regression to the Mean and Loss Aversion in Brazilian Soccer Club Performance. Open Access Library Journal, 6, e5603. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1105603.
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Silva, M. and Da Silva, S. (2019) Regressive Prediction Is the Best Way to Forecast Sports Outcomes: Evidence from Brazilian Soccer. Open Access Library Journal, 6, e5264. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1105264