Assessing Political Economy Factors Affecting Zimbabwe’s Capacity to Meet AfCFTA Obligations

This article assesses the political economy factors shaping Zimbabwe’s capacity to meet its obligations under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It examines how structural conditions, formal and informal institutions, national incentives, actors, agency, governance, and decision-making processes shape Zimbabwe’s readiness for deeper continental integration. The analysis focuses on tariffs and non-tariff measures as political-economy instruments that reflect revenue dependence, the protection of domestic constituencies, and regulatory discretion. It further considers institutional coordination, bureaucratic incentives, fiscal reliance on trade taxes, and political protection of key industries as factors influencing implementation capacity. The article shows that Zimbabwe has strong incentives to participate in the AfCFTA, including access to a single continental market, export expansion, manufacturing growth, value chain participation, services sector development, and employment creation in the digital economy. However, these opportunities are constrained by a weak industrial base, limited export diversification, macroeconomic instability, exchange-rate volatility, inadequate infrastructure, policy inconsistency, and weak implementation capacity. The discussion also highlights Zimbabwe’s long history of ambitious development policies, whose outcomes have been undermined by poor sequencing, weak institutional coordination, limited stakeholder engagement, and inconsistent political backing. The article therefore situates Zimbabwe’s AfCFTA prospects within a broader political economy context, arguing that effective participation requires more than tariff liberalisation. It depends on credible macroeconomic stabilisation, industrial upgrading, regulatory predictability, trade facilitation, private-sector engagement, and strengthened institutional governance.