Spatiotemporal Assessment of Deforestation Effects on Aerosol Optical Characteristics and Climate Variability over the Mau Forest Complex Based on MERRA-2 Reanalysis

The deforestation has far-reaching effects on aerosol characteristics and climatic variables. Deforestation disrupts the local climate by altering temperature, aerosol optical properties, and impacting air quality. Further, it also modifies precipitation patterns at varied scales. Nevertheless, the long-term impacts of deforestation on climate variables and aerosol properties over Mau remain not very well explored, especially considering the context of altered natural emissions and anthropogenic sources. This study bridges this gap through an in-depth analysis of deforestation impacts on aerosol characteristics and climate variables over the Mau Forest complex bounded by (0.2S, 35.2E) and (0.8S, 35.8E) using satellite and model-derived data from 2001 to 2024. The findings of the present study reveal that Aerosol optical depth (<0.2) and ？ngstr？m exponent (>1) are predominantly attributed to deforestation and climate change. The Correlation analysis found that surface temperature has a strong negative correlation with Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), with a coefficient of <？0.3, and is influenced by deforestation activities such as land clearing, agricultural activities, and dust storms. In addition, precipitation identified a moderate positive correlation with AOD, with values ranging from 0.1 to 0.4, attributed to factors such as the complex interplay of aerosol types, size distribution, and dust and atmospheric dynamics like strong winds, which can transport aerosols over long distances, and the presence of moist air masses. Besides aerosol optical depth (AOD), ？ngstr？m Exponent (AE), precipitation, and temperature are interconnected, influencing each other through complex atmospheric processes. Increased precipitation led to reduced AOD due to wet scavenging of aerosols. On the other hand, temperature affects aerosol formation and distribution. Changes in AOD, in turn, can impact precipitation patterns and temperature through radiative forcing. In short, the investigation indicates that aerosols’ optical properties over the Mau Forest complex exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns driven by both human and natural processes. The statistically significant correlations with meteorological parameters such as precipitation and temperature prove the modulating role of aerosol optical properties in regional climate processes. The policymakers must therefore prioritize emission control actions targeted at biomass burning, and scientists must keep investigating high-resolution aerosol optical properties-climate interactions using integrated ground and satellite observations to advance climate impact assessment over the Mau Forest complex in Kenya.