Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Sorghum Yield in Gedaref State, Sudan

Climate variability has become a major constraint to agricultural productivity in Sudan, particularly in rainfed regions such as Gedaref State. This study analyzes the impacts of temperature and rainfall variability on sorghum yield using long-term climate data (1961-2014) and sorghum production records (1970-2007). Mann-Kendall trend tests, correlation, and multiple regression analyses were applied to assess climate-yield relationships. The FAO AquaCrop model was used to project future yield changes under changing climate conditions. Results revealed significant increases in maximum and minimum temperatures (p < 0.001) and a slight, insignificant decline in rainfall. Sorghum yield was positively correlated with rainfall (r = 0.59) and negatively correlated with maximum (r = −0.34) and minimum (r = −0.31) temperatures. Regression results indicated that climatic variables explained about 30% of yield variability (p = 0.02). AquaCrop simulations suggested that by 2046, rainfall may decrease by 33% and temperature rise by 2.4˚C, leading to a 39.9% yield decline. The findings highlight the vulnerability of rainfed sorghum to climate variability and emphasize the need for adaptation measures to safeguard food security and rural livelihoods in Sudan.