Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Disasters in the Northern Mountain Areas of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Tianshan Mountains

With the increasing transnational and interregional economic, social, and cultural exchanges, the demand for large-scale debris flow research has be-come more urgent. The northern mountainous areas of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Tianshan Mountains exhibit diverse types of debris flows, posing serious threats to the safety of local residents and the smooth implementation of major projects. Currently, there is no research specifically targeting debris flows in this large region. By selecting the northern mountainous areas of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Tianshan Mountains as the study area, and based on the analysis of the natural geological environment and the distribution characteristics of debris flow disasters in the region, considering the diverse types of debris flows in large areas, eight evaluation factors were chosen: the average annual rainfall over the past 50 years, glacier grid ratio, average annual temperature over the past 50 years, slope, elevation difference, distance from the fault, PGA, and stratigraphic age. The debris flow disaster risk assessment in the study area was conducted using a weighted information model, and the reliability of the model was verified. The results show that areas with higher and high-risk levels are concentrated in the western section of the northern Tianshan Mountains, the southern Tianshan region, and the Pamir-Hindu Kush region, with 88.72% of disaster points distributed in the higher and high-risk areas. These findings have significant guiding implications for the development planning and disaster prevention and mitigation in the northern mountainous areas of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Tianshan Mountains.