Climate change is the most dangerous threat facing the world. This article analyzed near-future trends and changes in rainfall, temperature and wind speed over highlands and lowlands of Burundi, and their potential effects on water and electrical energy availability. Observed and gridded data were considered over the period 1981-2020 while forecasts from eight selected CMIP6 models were used over the period 2021-2045. A modified Mann-Kendall’s test was used to detect trends while Pettitt’s test was adopted to find change points. Future changes in quartiles were analyzed under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The findings revealed upward trends in near-future rainfall all over the study area. In SSP2-4.5, changes of 5.9%, 4.7%, 6.5%, and 5.1% are expected at NHL, NIP, SHL and SIP, respectively. In SSP5-8.5, the increase is projected to reach 10.4% at NHL, 9.7% at NIP, and 10.2% at SHL and SIP. A general increase in temperature is expected all over the study area. The wind speed is predicted to experience an increase of 0.8 m∙s-1 at NHL, NIP and SIP, and 0.7 m∙s-1 at SHL under SSP2-4.5. In SSP5-8.5, the increase will reach 1.0 m∙s-1 at NHL, NIP and SIP, and 0.9 m∙s-1 at SHL by 2045. The detected increase in wind speed is expected to positively impact wind power production and drainage windmills. The increase in rainfall will have positive effects on water availability and hydropower plant production, while higher temperature may increase evaporation and negatively affect water level.
Cite this paper
Manirakiza, C. , Niyongendako, M. , Ndizeye, P. and Nzeyimana, Z. (2024). Potential Effects of Climate Trends and Changes on Water and Energy Security in Near-Future Climate Scenarios over Burundi (East Africa). Open Access Library Journal, 11, e1538. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1111538.
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