全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

Logistic Approach to COVID-19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil

DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1106600, PP. 1-18

Subject Areas: Sociology, Modern Physics

Keywords: New Coronavirus, COVID-19, Dynamic Models, Logistic Model, Predator-Prey Model, Dynastic model, Contamination Inflexion, Contamination Saturation-Plateau Regime, Social Isolation

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract

We present in this paper the temporal evolution of the contaminated population by coronavirus in Brazil and globally. We access those information analytically and numerically using a logistic model. Using the COVID-19 data from The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS), from The World Health Organization—WHO, and from The Niteroi Health Foundation (FMS), we plot the curves for the contaminated population ramping-up, the population inflection, and the population saturation-plateau regime. Based on the simulations, and considering this more advanced phase of the pandemic, we present some action insights, which might be useful to generate more effectiveness in the actions of society in general, and also to create a more intense public awareness on the contamination hubs and surges that may emerge due to the reduction of social isolation at this more advanced phase of the pandemic.

Cite this paper

Assis, A. S. D. and Carvalho, V. W. D. (2020). Logistic Approach to COVID-19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil. Open Access Library Journal, 7, e6600. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106600.

References

[1]  Cotta, R.M., Naveira-Cotta, C.P. and Magal, P. (2020) Parametric Identification and Public Health Measures Influence on the Covid-19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049130
[2]  Batista, M. (2020) Estimation of the Final Size of the Covid-19 Epidemic.
[3]  Modelo logístico Brasil Covid 19 2020, observatório covid-19 Maringá. http://complex.pfi.uem.br/covid
[4]  Kriston, L. (2020) Projection of Cumulative Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) Case Growth with a Hierarchical Logistic Model. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.257386
[5]  Balloni, A.J. and Winter, R. (2020) The Constant K and the Gaussian Temporal Evolution for COVID-19. Proceedings of iLSET, 1-4.
[6]  (2020) Situation Report—144, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19).
[7]  “Hubs of Infection”: How Covid-19 Spread through Latin America’s Markets. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/coronavirus-latin-america-markets-mexico-brazil-peru
[8]  Johns Hopkins University of Medicine—Coronavirus Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
[9]  Boyce, W.E. and Diprima, R.C. (2001) Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems. 7th Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
[10]  http://coronavirus.butantan.gov.br/ultimas-noticias/o-que-e-imunidade-de-rebanho
[11]  Verhulst, P.E. (1844) Recherches mathématiques sur la loi d’accroissement de la population. Mémoires de l’Académie Royale des Sciences et des Lettres de Bruxelles, 18, 1-38.
[12]  Davis, H.T. (1960) Introduction to Nonlinear Differencial Equation. Dover, New York.
[13]  Qasim, S.R. (1985) Wastewater Treatment Plants: Planning, Design, and Operation. Second Edition, Routledge, Abingdon-on-Thame.
[14]  (2014) Estudo analítico da equação de Fisher linearizada: Determinação de tamanhos mínimos de fragmentos populacionais/Renato Pacheco Villar, Dissertação de mestrado, universidade federal de alfenas.
[15]  Lopez, R.M., Morin, B.R. and Suslov, S.K. (2010) Logistic Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients and Some of Their Applications. Cornell University, Ithaca.
[16]  https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory
[17]  https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/mathematical-models~mathematical-models models.htm~mathematical-models-2.2.htm
[18]  Goldstein, B.D. (2001) The Precautionary Principle Also Applies to Public Health Actions. American Journal of Public Health, 91, 1358-1361. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.91.9.1358
[19]  ALARA—As Low as Reasonably Achievable. https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/alara.html
[20]  Von Sperling, M. (2014) Princípios do tratamento biológico de águas residuárias. Vol. 1. Introdução à qualidade das águas e ao tratamento de esgotos. 4th Edition, Editora UFMG, 472 p.
[21]  https://saude.gov.br/component/tags/tag/oms
[22]  http://www.saude.niteroi.rj.gov.br
[23]  https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus2019?gclid=CjwKCAjw57b3BRBlEiwA1ImytjOFiJH189_Ax1it4CZJmFB3paFse-wKw8jnW5aqHbOgdWiNJP2f9hoCuSQQAvD_BwE
[24]  Usher, D. (1989) The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State. The American Economic Review, 79, 1031-1044.
[25]  Hilborn, R.C. (1994) Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: An Introduction for Scientists and Engineers. Oxford University Press, New York.
[26]  Wu, K., Darcet, D., Wang, Q. and Sornette, D. (2020) Generalized Logistic Growth Modeling of the COVID-19 Outbreak in 29 Provinces in China and in the Rest of the World. Cornnell University, Ithaca.
[27]  Hortulanus, R., Machielse, A. and Meeuwesen, L. (2006) Social Isolation in Modern Society. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, London.
[28]  Bin, Y., Steptoe, A., Chen, L.J. and Ku, P.W. (2019) Social Isolation, Loneliness, and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: A 10-Year Follow-Up Study. Psychosomatic Medicine, 82, 208-214.

Full-Text


comments powered by Disqus

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133

WeChat 1538708413