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Prediction Analysis of the Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease in China Based on Meta Analysis

DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1106375, PP. 1-13

Subject Areas: Public Health

Keywords: Alzheimer’s Disease, Prevalence, ARIMA Model, Grey Model

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Abstract

Objective: To predict the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in China’s future elderly population, and to provide reference for the formulation and implementation of relevant public health policies in China. Methods: A computer search of domestically published literatures with Alzheimer’s disease risk factors data was used to conduct a meta-analysis of Alzheimer’s disease epidemiological studies that met the inclusion criteria to calculate the Alzheimer’s disease of the elderly in different periods over the past 30 years According to the results obtained from the previous Meta analysis, this paper established the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model and the GM (1, 1) model, which better fit the previously merged prevalence sequence from 1990 to 2018. Result: According to the prediction results of the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model, 2019 to 2023 Alzheimer’s disease in China, the prevalence rates are 6.465%, 6.524%, 6.580%, 6.632%, and 6.7955%. Conclusion: Without corresponding effective preventive measures, the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease in China will show a continuous growth trend.

Cite this paper

Zang, P. and Jin, Z. (2020). Prediction Analysis of the Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease in China Based on Meta Analysis. Open Access Library Journal, 7, e6375. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106375.

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