This paper reports about a forecast of drinking
water consumption in Hamburg up to the year 2045 which was done in cooperation
of the Institute for Social-Ecological Research with the Ifo Institute. While
the Institute for Social-Ecological Research was responsible for the drinking
water demand of private households, the Ifo Institute undertook a long-term
forecast of the industrial and commercial drinking water consumption.
Comparable water demand forecasts for other cities or regions treat the
industrial water consumption compared to domestic consumption rather
rudimentary. The innovation of this forecast versus previous, conventional
approaches is the choice of the workforce instead of the population as a
reference point for the water requirements of enterprises. It is described in
this paper how the problems of predicting industrial and commercial water
consumption based on limited information were solved. Forecasts of sectoral
employment were completed by determining the specific water needs for each
sector and by assumptions about efficiency improvements in drinking water
consumption. Those assumptions were secured through written and oral inquiries
of major customers of the Hamburg Waterworks and experts from the water sector.
Cite this paper
Wackerbauer, J. (2017). A Forecast of Industrial and Commercial Drinking Water Consumption in Hamburg. Open Access Library Journal, 4, e3425. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1103425.
Kluge, T., Liehr, S.,
Schulz, O., Sunderer, G. and Wackerbauer, J. (2013) Water Demand Forecast 2045
for the Supply Area of Hamburg Water, Institute for Socio-Ecological Research
(ISOE) and Ifo Institute, Frankfurt/Main, Munich.
ISOE/COOPERATIVE
(2007) Water Demand Forecast 2030 for the Supply Area of the Hamburg Water
Utilities Limited in the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg. Institute for Socio-Ecological
Research and COOPERATIVE, Frankfurt/Main and Darmstadt.
Grossmann, J. and Hofmann, H. (2008) Integrated Water
Demand Forecasting. Part 1: Development of an Innovative Forecast Model for
Hamburg Water. GWF Water/Waste Water, 10, 758-763.
Grossmann, J. and Meinzinger, F. (2016) Update of the
Integrated Water Demand Forecast for Hamburg up to the Year 2045. Part 2:
Results. GWF Water/Waste Water, 2, 166-73.
Liehr, S., Schulz, O., Kluge, T., Sunderer, G. and
Wackerbauer, J. (2016) Update of the Integrated Water Demand Forecast for
Hamburg up to the Year 2045. Part 1: Basics and Methodology. GWF Water/Waste Water, 2, 156-165.
Twenty-Foot
Equivalent Unit TEU: Unit of Cargo Capacity Used to Describe the Capacity of
Container Ships and Container Terminals, Based on the Volume of a 20-Foot-Long
(6.1 m) Standard-Sized Intermodal Container.
