Abordagem discreta para a dinamica da taxa Selic-meta

in this paper we do follow a non-stationary discrete approach to model the baseline rate in brazil. the paper innovates in approaching the decisions in terms of a hike, maintenance or cut in the baseline rate rather than assume that it follows a continuous path. our model seems to be parsimonious and forecast correctly 83% of the actual copom decisions. the estimated parameters define a threshold to the copom actions which is asymmetric, but finds no significant differences between high and low thresholds.