%0 Journal Article %T Abordagem discreta para a dinamica da taxa Selic-meta %A Caetano %A Sidney Martins %A Silva Jr %A Geraldo Edmundo %A Corr¨ºa %A Wilson Luiz Rotatori %J Economia Aplicada %D 2011 %I Universidade de S?o Paulo %R 10.1590/S1413-80502011000200003 %X in this paper we do follow a non-stationary discrete approach to model the baseline rate in brazil. the paper innovates in approaching the decisions in terms of a hike, maintenance or cut in the baseline rate rather than assume that it follows a continuous path. our model seems to be parsimonious and forecast correctly 83% of the actual copom decisions. the estimated parameters define a threshold to the copom actions which is asymmetric, but finds no significant differences between high and low thresholds. %K monetary policy %K taylor rule %K nonstationary discrete approach. %U http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S1413-80502011000200003&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en