Estimativas da fun？？o exporta？？es brasileiras agregadas com dados das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais, 1995-2009

this paper presents new econometric specifications for the brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the quarterly accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. in the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. the income-elasticity remained close to the unity, and the real exchange rate multiplier was small. in the short-run dynamics, the world income exerts a nonnegligible influence, and the exchange rate is not significant. we estimate the correction of disequilibria occurs within three quarters. in addition, we underscore selected models exhibited a good performance in the out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecast.