%0 Journal Article
%T Estimativas da fun£¿£¿o exporta£¿£¿es brasileiras agregadas com dados das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais, 1995-2009
%A Schettini
%A Bernardo Patta
%A Squeff
%A Gabriel Coelho
%A Gouv¨ºa
%A Raphael Rocha
%J Economia Aplicada
%D 2012
%I Universidade de S?o Paulo
%R 10.1590/S1413-80502012000100007
%X this paper presents new econometric specifications for the brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the quarterly accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. in the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. the income-elasticity remained close to the unity, and the real exchange rate multiplier was small. in the short-run dynamics, the world income exerts a nonnegligible influence, and the exchange rate is not significant. we estimate the correction of disequilibria occurs within three quarters. in addition, we underscore selected models exhibited a good performance in the out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecast.
%U http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S1413-80502012000100007&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en