RCEP背景下中国与东盟的水果贸易
Fruit Trade between China and ASEAN in the Context of RCEP

RCEP (区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)的签订与实施为深化中国与东盟国家之间的经贸合作提供了新的机遇，尤其在水果贸易方面表现显著。本文基于2019年~2023年中国与东盟的水果双边贸易数据、中国和东盟各自与世界的水果贸易额数据、中国对进口东盟水果征收的关税数据，使用结构引力模型并通过面板固定效应模型展开实证分析，探究RCEP对中国向东盟进口水果产生的贸易影响，同时通过计算贸易竞争力指数、贸易结合度指数和产业内贸易指数来反映该期间中国水果的国际竞争力并分析RCEP的实施对中国与东盟水果贸易互补性的影响。研究发现：RCEP的签订主要通过关税降低带来的成本下降效应对中国–东盟水果进口贸易产生显著促进作用。指数分析表明，中国水果存在明显的竞争劣势，只有传统优势品种苹果、柑橘、葡萄等具有较强的竞争优势。在互补性方面，RCEP的实施，增加了中国与东盟的贸易结合程度与依赖程度，同时也增加了中国与东盟水果的产业间贸易比例，提升了中国与东盟水果贸易的互补性。本文的结论为中国与东盟把握双方水果贸易的互补性，探究如何更好地利用RCEP带来的政策红利，推动中国水果进出口增长与提高其出口国际竞争力，丰富国内市场的多样性，同时也为中国与东盟探索水果双边贸易的发展路径提供参考。
The signing and implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has provided new opportunities for deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries, especially in fruit trade. Based on the bilateral fruit trade data between China and ASEAN from 2019 to 2023, the fruit trade volume data between China and ASEAN and the world, and the tariff data imposed by China on imported ASEAN fruits, this paper uses the structural gravity model and the panel fixed effect model to carry out an empirical analysis to explore the trade impact of RCEP on China’s fruit imports from ASEAN. The trade cohesion index and intra-industry trade index reflect the international competitiveness of Chinese fruits during this period, and analyze the impact of the implementation of RCEP on the complementarity of fruit trade between China and ASEAN. The results show that the signing of RCEP has a significant effect on China-ASEAN fruit import trade mainly through the cost reduction effect of tariff reduction. The index analysis shows that there are obvious competitive disadvantages in Chinese fruits, and only the traditional dominant varieties such as apples, citrus and grapes have strong competitive advantages. In terms of complementarity, the implementation of RCEP has increased the degree of trade integration and dependence between China and ASEAN, and also increased the proportion of inter-industry trade between China and ASEAN fruits, and enhanced the complementarity of fruit trade between China and ASEAN. The conclusion of this paper is to grasp the complementarity of fruit trade between China and ASEAN, explore how to make better use of the policy dividends brought by RCEP, promote the growth of China’s fruit import and export, improve the international competitiveness of its exports, enrich the diversity of the domestic market, and provide a reference for China and ASEAN to explore