中国新质生产力水平测度及时空演变特征研究
Research on the Measurement and Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of China’s New Quality Productivity Level

基于2012~2022年中国30个省份数据，在构建中国新质生产力综合指标体系的基础上，运用熵值法测算其发展水平，并通过Dagum基尼系数及其分解、核密度估计方法、莫兰指数和Markov链状态转移法分别考察中国新质生产力的时空分布、区域差异以及空间动态演变。中国新质生产力发展水平在全国和四大地区层面整体呈梯度上升的发展趋势，并体现由东向西递减的分布格局。东部和西部地区的新质生产力发展水平的地区间差异最大，中部和东北地区的新质生产力发展水平地区内差异最大，地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源；全国总体和四大地区新质生产力发展的非均衡性在不同程度上均有所增强，且具有“俱乐部趋同”特征；区域生产力发展动态变化受到临近地区影响显著，体现正向的空间溢出效应，但当新质生产力水平较低的地区与差异过大的高水平地区相邻时，其正向作用则受到一定程度的抑制。应通过推动新质生产力区域协调发展、探索人才共享机制、构建区域创新合作网络、推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合等方面促进新质生产力均衡协调发展。
Based on data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, a comprehensive indicator system for China’s new quality productivity was constructed. The entropy method was used to measure its development level, and the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition, kernel density estimation method, Moran index, and Markov chain state transition method were used to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution, regional differences, and spatial dynamic evolution of China’s new quality productivity. The overall development level of China’s new quality productivity shows a gradient upward trend at the national and four major regional levels, and reflects a decreasing distribution pattern from east to west. The regional differences in the development level of new quality productivity between the eastern and western regions are the greatest, while the intra regional differences in the development level of new quality productivity between the central and northeastern regions are the greatest. Inter regional differences are the main source of overall differences; The imbalance in the development of new quality productive forces across the country and the four major regions has been strengthened to varying degrees, and has the characteristic of “club convergence”; The dynamic changes in regional productivity development are significantly influenced by neighboring regions, reflecting a positive spatial spillover effect. However, when regions with lower levels of new quality productivity are adjacent to high-level regions with significant differences, their positive effects are somewhat suppressed. We should promote the balanced and coordinated development of new quality productivity by promoting regional coordinated development, exploring talent sharing mechanisms, building regional innovation cooperation networks, and advancing the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation.