应急准备能力对自然灾害损失程度的影响研究——基于31个省际面板数据分析
Study on the Impact of Emergency Preparedness on Natural Disaster Loss Degree—Based on 31 Provincial Panel Data Analysis

防灾减灾、抗灾救灾是人类生存法则的永恒课题，我国是世界上受自然灾害影响最为严重的国家之一，随着灾害种类、复杂性增加，自然灾害造成重大的人员生命财产损失，应急准备作为全过程危机理论中的一个环节，应急准备能力是应对突发自然灾害事件的关键。为客观评价全国应急准备能力水平，根据已有相关研究，本研究建立灾害因素和应对因素两个准则层13个关键指标的综合评价指标体系，利用熵值法对应急准备能力进行综合量化分析，将应急准备能力综合评分作为解释变量，运用2020~2022年我国31个省(市、自治州)的面板数据，进一步分析和探讨应急准备能力对自然灾害损失程度的影响。结果表明：(1) 各省份应急准备能力存在较大差距。(2) 应急准备能力评价指标体系中权重系数较高的指标大多属于第二项准侧层“应对因素”的指标。(3) 应急准备能力对灾害损失程度有显著的影响，能力越高对自然灾害损失程度的降低效果越好。基于此，从加强自然灾害防治规划、构建协同应急模式、加强灾害信息流通、完善应急服务保障四个维度出发，对提升应急准备能力提出针对性建议。
Disaster prevention, mitigation and disaster relief are the eternal subject of human existence. China is one of the countries most seriously affected by natural disasters in the world. With the increase in the types and complexity of disasters, natural disasters cause heavy loss of human life and property. In order to objectively evaluate the level of national emergency preparedness, based on the existing relevant studies, this study established a comprehensive evaluation index system of 13 key indicators in the two criterion layers of disaster factors and response factors, used the entropy method to conduct a comprehensive quantitative analysis of emergency preparedness ability, and took the comprehensive score of emergency preparedness ability as an explanatory variable. The panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous prefectures) from 2020 to 2022 were used to further analyze and discuss the impact of emergency preparedness on the loss degree of natural disasters. The results show that: (1) There is a large gap in emergency preparedness capacity among provinces. (2) Most of the indicators with high weight coefficient in the evaluation index system of emergency preparedness capability belong to the second level of “coping factors”. (3) Emergency preparedness capacity has a significant impact on the degree of disaster loss, and the higher the capacity, the better the effect of reducing the degree of natural disaster loss. Based on this, from the four dimensions of strengthening natural disaster prevention and control planning, building collaborative emergency response mode, strengthening disaster information circulation, and improving emergency service guarantee, specific suggestions are put forward to improve emergency preparedness capability.