国家级开发区成立对经济增长的影响——基于多时点双重差分模型的政策效应评估
The Impact of National-Level Development Zones on Economic Growth—A Policy Effect Evaluation Based on a Multi-Period Difference-in-Differences Model

国家级开发区作为产业政策在特定区域内的广泛性体现，对中国各地区经济增长与高质量发展有着举足轻重的影响。本文利用2003~2022年中国城市层面的面板数据，构建双重差分模型，考察了国家级开发区政策对中国城市的经济增长的影响，以及比较优势在其中扮演的角色。研究发现：(1) 国家级开发区的成立能够显著推动经济增长。(2) 国家级开发区政策对经济增长的促进作用具有空间异质性、和资源禀赋异质性。(3) 设立遵循比较优势的国家级开发区对经济增长有更强的促进作用。为提高国家级开发区建设成功率，增强开发区政策对经济增长的促进作用，建议政府在开发区内选择发展与比较优势相符合的产业。
As a manifestation of industrial policy in specific regions, national-level development zones (NLDZs) play a crucial role in driving economic growth and high-quality development across China. This paper employs panel data from Chinese cities over the period of 2003-2022 and constructs a difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of NLDZ policies on urban economic growth in China, as well as the role of comparative advantage in this process. The findings indicate that: (1) The establishment of NLDZs significantly promotes economic growth; (2) The positive impact of NLDZ policies on economic growth exhibits spatial and resource endowment heterogeneity; and (3) NLDZs that are set up in accordance with comparative advantage have a stronger growth-enhancing effect. To improve the success rate of NLDZ construction and enhance the growth-promoting effects of these policies, it is recommended that the government select industries that align with comparative advantages for development within the zones.