长江经济带低碳物流与经济协调发展水平及政策效应分析
Analysis on Coordinated Development Level and Policy Effect of Low-Carbon Logistics and Economy in Yangtze River Economic Belt

以长江经济带11个省市低碳物流与经济协同发展水平为研究对象，运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关分析及双重差分等方法，基于2011~2020年相关时间序列数据，实证分析了长江经济带低碳物流和经济协调发展的时空演化特征及其政策效应。结果表明：从2011到2020的十年间，长江经济带低碳物流和经济耦合协调发展水平从严重失调到优质协调，实现了跨越式发展；而空间分布上则存在随机性，无显著分布特征。总体而言，“高–高”聚集地较少，部分地区“低–高”聚集效应相对显著，辐射带动作用仍需加强。低碳物流发展政策的提出对低碳物流和经济发展协调水平存在显著的促进作用，说明政策有效。
This study takes the coordinated development level of low-carbon logistics and economy in the 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object. Using methods such as the coupling coordination degree model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and difference-in-differences (DID), and based on time-series data from 2011 to 2020, it empirically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and policy effects of the coordinated development of low-carbon logistics and economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results show that over the decade from 2011 to 2020, the coupling coordination development level of low-carbon logistics and economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has made a leapfrog development, shifting from severe imbalance to high-quality coordination. However, in terms of spatial distribution, there is randomness without significant distribution patterns. Overall, there are few “high-high” agglomeration areas, while the “low-high” agglomeration effect in some regions is relatively significant, indicating that the radiating and driving role needs to be enhanced. The introduction of low-carbon logistics development policies has had a significant positive impact on the coordinated development level of low-carbon logistics and the economy, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the policies.