数字经济对农业绿色低碳发展的影响研究——基于中介效应和门槛效应分析
Research on the Influence of Digital Economy on Green and Low-Carbon Agricultural Development—Based on the Mediation Effect and the Threshold Effect Analysis

基于2013~2022年中国省级面板数据，采用熵值法构建数字经济与农业绿色低碳发展指标体系，实证分析数字经济对农业绿色低碳发展的影响及作用机制。研究发现：(1) 数字经济促进农业绿色低碳发展，技术创新水平则在这一过程中起中介作用。(2) 相较于东部地区，中西部地区数字经济对农业绿色低碳发展推动作用更为显著；同时，粮食主产区相较于非粮食主产区，也呈现出更显著的促进作用。(3) 维度异质性分析发现，数字经济对农业高效发展正向促进作用最大，其次是农业现代化和农业绿色发展，而对农业低碳转型则表现出一定抑制作用，但这种抑制效应并不显著。(4) 门槛检验表明，数字经济对农业绿色低碳发展的影响存在单门槛效应，在门槛值0.081内，其对农业绿色低碳发展起显著促进作用；在越过门槛值后，其对农业绿色低碳发展促进作用明显减缓。据此，应强化数字基础设施与应用，提高技术创新水平，实施差异化战略，以推动农业绿色低碳转型。
Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2013 to 2022, the entropy method is adopted to build the index system of digital economy and agricultural green and low-carbon development, and the impact and function mechanism of digital economy on the green and low-carbon development of agriculture are empirically analyzed. The research found that: (1) the digital economy promotes the green and low-carbon development of agriculture, and the level of technological innovation plays an intermediary role in this process. (2) Compared with the eastern region, the digital economy in the central and western regions plays a more significant role in promoting the green and low-carbon agricultural development; meanwhile, the major grain producing areas also play a more significant role than the non-major grain producing areas. (3) Dimensional heterogeneity analysis shows that digital economy has the most positive effect on promoting the efficient development of agriculture, followed by agricultural modernization and agricultural green development, while it shows a certain inhibitory effect on the low-carbon transformation of agriculture, but this inhibitory effect is not significant. (4) The threshold test shows that digital economy has a single threshold effect on the green and low-carbon development of agriculture. Within the threshold value of 0.081, it plays a significant role in promoting agricultural green and low-carbon development. After crossing the threshold value, its effect on promoting green and low-carbon agricultural development is significantly slowed down. Accordingly, digital infrastructure and application should be strengthened, the level of technological innovation should be improved, and differentiation strategies should be implemented to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.