RCEP对中日纺织品贸易的影响——基于GTAP模型分析
The Impact of RCEP on Sino-Japanese Textile Trade —Based on GTAP Model Analysis

区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)于2020年11月15日由东盟十国、中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰正式签署，并于2022年1月1日正式生效。由于RCEP对成员国间贸易壁垒的削减，本文预测RCEP将会对中日纺织品贸易和纺织业产生正面影响，并相对应地展开论证分析。本文从理论上分析RCEP对中日两国纺织业的经济效应，分为静态和动态效应两部分，得出RCEP对两国纺织业存在正面的经济效应，同时也存在贸易转移效应等相对应的经济风险；最后，本文通过经过动态递归的GTAP模型，模拟出RCEP完全生效后的中日纺织品贸易的情况。通过模拟，本文得出了RCEP将会显著扩大中日纺织品贸易量的结论，并且RCEP将会从各方面有利于中日两国纺织业的产业升级，具有显著的正面影响。
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was officially signed on November 15, 2020, by the ten ASEAN member states, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, and came into effect on January 1, 2022. By reducing trade barriers among member countries, RCEP is predicted to have a positive impact on Sino-Japanese textile trade and the textile industry. This paper conducts a theoretical analysis of the economic effects of RCEP on the textile industries of China and Japan, focusing on both static and dynamic effects. The findings reveal that RCEP generates positive economic impacts on the textile industries of both countries while also posing economic risks such as trade diversion effects. Furthermore, using a dynamic recursive GTAP model, this paper simulates the state of Sino-Japanese textile trade after RCEP’s full implementation. The simulation results indicate that RCEP will significantly expand the trade volume of textiles between China and Japan. Additionally, RCEP is shown to promote industrial upgrading in the textile sectors of both countries, offering substantial positive effects.