产业结构升级对双循环发展水平的影响
The Influence of Industrial Structure Upgrading on the Level of Double Cycle Development

双循环新发展格局是中国经济发展的战略主轴，厘清产业结构升级对双循环的影响机制，对构建新发展格局具有重要意义。本文测算我国省级双循环发展水平，利用面板回归模型分析产业结构升级对双循环的影响。研究发现：我国经济双循环发展水平存在地区不均衡特征，国内循环发展水平较高的地区，国际循环发展水平也较高。双循环绩效呈现出的东南沿海发达地区及西北落后地区积聚特征明显，且东部沿海地区的双循环发展水平增长速度快于西部地区。产业结构升级显著提高了我国双循环发展水平，科技创新作为调节变量对产业结构升级和国内国际双循环之间的关系具有激励作用。异质性分析发现，加快产业结构升级对东部地区双循环的促进作用比西部地区大，“十三五”时期产业结构升级对双循环的促进作用强于“十二五”时期，且产业结构升级对国内经济循环的影响系数为正且显著，促进作用明显，对国际经济循环没有直接促进作用。
The new development pattern of double cycle is the strategic axis of China’s economic development. It is of great significance to clarify the influence mechanism of industrial structure upgrading on the double cycle in constructing the new development pattern. In this paper, entropy method is used to measure the provincial level of double cycle development, and panel regression model is used to analyze the impact of industrial structure upgrading on the double cycle. The study found that the double cycle development level of Chinese economy is characterized by regional disequilibrium. The level of domestic cycle development is relatively high, and the level of international cycle development is also relatively high. The dual-cycle performance shows obvious spatial accumulation characteristics in the developed southeast coastal areas and the backward northwest areas, and the dual-cycle development level in the eastern coastal areas grows faster than that in the western areas. The upgrading of industrial structure has significantly raised the level of double cycle development, and the innovation of science and technology as the regulating variable has an incentive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure and the relationship between domestic and international double cycle. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of accelerating industrial structure upgrading on the double cycle in the eastern region is much greater than that in the western region, and the promotion effect of industrial structure upgrading on the double cycle in the 13^th Five-Year Plan period is stronger than that in the 12^th Five-Year Plan period, and the influence coefficient of industrial structure upgrading on the domestic economic cycle is positive and significant, and the promotion effect is obvious, but has no direct promotion effect on the international economic cycle.