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基于LWHM-LUCC模型的澜沧江流域径流模拟
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Abstract:
近几十年来，受变化环境的影响，澜沧江流域的径流发生了显著的变化。为了更好地对澜沧江流域的径流变化进行模拟和预测，构建了二水源和三水源LWHM-LUCC模型，采用1986~2004年资料进行径流模拟，通过比较两个模型的年径流和月径流模拟结果，评价两者在澜沧江流域的适用性。结果表明：二水源和三水源LWHM-LUCC模型年径流的模拟效果基本相同，三水源LWHM-LUCC模型月径流的模拟效果优于二水源LWHM-LUCC模型；二水源和三水源LWHM-LUCC模型在汛期的径流模拟效果均优于非汛期，尤其是7月的径流模拟效果最好。
The runoff in the Lancang River basin has undergone significant changes due to the changing environ-ment in recent decades. Two-water Sources and Three-water Sources Lumped Watershed Hydrological Model Considering Land Use and Land Cover Change (LWHM-LUCC) were constructed, and the data from 1986 to 2004 were used to calibrated and verify the models. The results show that: annual runoff simulation effect of the two-water sources and three-water sources LWHM-LUCC model is basically the same, and the monthly runoff simulated by the three-water sources LWHM-LUCC model is better than that of the two-water sources LWHM-LUCC model, which indicates that three-water sources LWHM-LUCC model has better applicability; the two-water sources and three-water sources LWHM-LUCC model have better runoff simulation effects in the flood season than in the non-flood season, especially the runoff simulation effect in July is the best.
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