Predicting the Effect of a Predictor When Controlling for Baseline

The present simulation study indicates that a method where the regression effect of a predictor (X) on an outcome at follow-up (Y1) is calculated while adjusting for the outcome at baseline (Y0) can give spurious findings, especially when there is a strong correlation between X and Y0 and when the test–retest correlation between Y0 and Y1 is relatively weak. Researchers wishing to avoid spurious findings and Type 1 errors should be aware of this phenomenon and are recommended to verify found effects by an unadjusted effect of X on the Y1–Y0 difference