中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡的社会经济影响评价
Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Phasing out SCCPs in China

摘要 利用成本效益分析法, 设置5年和10年淘汰情景, 对中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡 (SCCPs) 的成本和效益进行分析。淘汰SCCPs的成本为181.1~308.8亿元, 主要来自下游行业替代损失, 5年淘汰情景的成本低于10年淘汰情景; 中国淘汰SCCPs的收益为1462.6亿元, 建议采用5年淘汰情景淘汰SCCPs。
Abstract The costs and benefits of phasing out short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) in China were analyzed under the 5-year and 10-year control scenarios by cost benefit analysis. The cost of phasing out SCCPs was 18.11 to 30.88 billion yuan, mainly from the substitution in downstream industries. The cost under the 5-year control scenario was less than the 10-year scenario. The benefit of phasing out SCCPs in China was 146.26 billion yuan. The 5-year control scenario was suggested for phasing out SCCPs.