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- 2017
诱发因素影响下的滑坡参数优化预测模型研究
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Abstract:
在降雨等外界诱发因素的综合作用下，滑坡位移预测是一个复杂的动力系统问题。利用三峡库区白家包滑坡综合监测数据，分析滑坡演化实时特征，提取影响滑坡变形的最相关因素，研究发现白家包滑坡为降雨主导型堆积层滑坡；采用自回归综合移动模型（ARIMA）模型进行拟合及预测，引入月累积降雨量对模型季节性趋势参数进行评估优化，对白家包滑坡72期月相对位移数据进行拟合及预测研究，最终模型结果和实测值的平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为2.873和0.983。研究结果表明，与传统经验法相比，优化参数模型更符合滑坡变形的一般规律
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