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高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值界定及交通冲突量预测

Keywords: 交通安全,施工区,合流冲突,风险阈值,灰色预测

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Abstract:

分析了高速公路施工区合流行为特性,以行车速度与合流角度作为合流交通冲突的表征参数,以冲突时间作为合流冲突风险的度量指标,建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突风险计算模型,确定了高速公路施工区不同安全状态的合流冲突风险阈值.运用灰色理论建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突预测的GM(1,1)模型,并通过合流冲突调查样本数据对该模型进行验证.结果表明:不同安全状态下的高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值危险、中等、安全分别为(∞,5)km/h、(3.55,5km/h和(0,3.55km/h;GM(1,1)高速公路施工区合流交通冲突量预测模型有效、可靠,满足精度要求.

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