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基于模型优选及融合的高教园区出行生成预测方法

, PP. 66-71

Keywords: 交通预测,模型优选,D-S证据理论,模型融合,出行生成预测

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Abstract:

为了提高高教园区出行生成预测数据的可靠性,提出了一种基于模型优选及融合的出行生成预测方法。根据选取的模型评价指标,借助ELECTRE方法对区域出行产生模型进行优选,利用证据理论方法,对优选模型的权重进行标定,最后借助标定后的权重对区域交通生成量进行数据融合预测,并与实际结果进行了对比。分析结果表明多模型融合预测相对误差在10%以下,预测结果与实际情况非常接近,该预测方法有效。

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