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随机供给与随机需求的交通网络设计模型

, PP. 67-74

Keywords: 交通规划,离散交通网络,不确定性理论,双层规划理论,蒙特卡洛模拟,遗传算法

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Abstract:

为了改进以确定供给与确定需求为基础的传统交通网络设计方案,根据双层规划理论与交通分配理论,建立了基于随机供给与随机需求的离散交通网络设计模型。将MonteCarlo模拟、遗传算法和交通分配算法应用于模型求解过程,并应用Nguyen-Dupuis交通网络求解模型。计算结果表明当OD需求增大时,总走行时间增大;当建设预算增大时,总走行时间下降;当供给与需求均不确定时,增加建设预算对降低总走行时间的效果更加明显;在不同工况下,总走行时间最大值为1.69×105h,最小值为8.89×104h;当OD需求均值为350veh?h-1,建设预算从1000万元增大到1500万元,且供给确定时,总走行时间下降3.47%。供给与需求的不确定程度对交通网络的设计方案具有重要影响。

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