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干散货运输船舶投资订购的内在影响机制

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Keywords: 交通运输经济,干散货运输船舶,订购,协整,广义自回归条件异方差模型,向量误差修正模型

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Abstract:

应用动态计量经济理论与方法,研究了干散货运输船舶订购的内在影响机制,分析了3种主要干散货船型的新船价格、二手船价格和期租金率与新船订购量之间的动态关系。研究结果表明不同船型的新船价格之间、二手船价格之间均不存在协整关系,而各种船型的订购量、新船价格、二手船价格和期租金率之间存在协整关系;船舶订购量与期租金率负相关,与新船价格正相关;Capsize型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量正相关,Panamax型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量负相关,Handymax型船舶的二手船价格与其订购量关系不显著;各种船型的期租金率对于船舶订购量的冲击最大;Handy-max型船舶的新船造价对于订购量的冲击在各类船舶中最小;Panamax型船舶的二手船价格对于订购量的冲击是正向的,而Capsize型船舶和Handymax型船舶二手船价格对于订购量的冲击是负向。

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