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中国碳排放影响因素分析和趋势预测——基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的实证研究

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3026.2015.02.031, PP. 297-300

Keywords: 碳排放,影响因素,偏最小二乘回归法,STIRPAT模型,GM(1,1)模型

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Abstract:

采用STIRPAT模型全面地对影响中国2000—2011年碳排放的因素进行分析,并利用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测了中国2012—2020年碳排放量.研究结果显示:城镇化率、经济增长、产业结构、能源价格、人口、能源结构和外贸强度对碳排放量有一定的促进作用,技术进步对碳排放量具有较强的抑制作用;其中对中国碳排放量增加影响较大的因素是人口和产业结构;根据GM(1,1)预测模型的结果,可以看出未来的减排压力还很大.因此,治理碳排放的政策应该综合考虑人口、产业结构和技术进步等影响因素.

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