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基于机制转换Copula模型的股市量价尾部关系研究

, PP. 16-23

Keywords: 量价关系,尾部相依性,机制转换,混合Copula

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Abstract:

?针对传统模型只能考察正常市场条件下的量价关系,本文构建了机制转换Copula模型来研究极端市场条件下我国股市量价间的尾部相依性,发现沪深两市收益率、绝对收益率与交易量间的尾部关系存在明显的非对称特征。高收益率、高绝对收益率对应着高交易量,而低收益率、低绝对收益率与高、低交易量不存在对应关系。另外,量价间尾部关系与机制状态有关,呈现明显的周期性动态特征与结构性变化,结构变化点对应着股市周期中较大调整的开始或结束。研究还发现沪市量价间尾部关系要强于深市,但深市收益率与交易量尾部在两机制间的变动更大,而两市绝对收益率与交易量间的尾部相依性在两机制间变动较小。

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