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密集城镇群客流分布双层最大熵模型

, PP. 164-170

Keywords: 交通工程,客流预测,分布模型,最大熵,密集城镇群

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Abstract:

?为了满足密集城镇群客流分布预测的需求,为密集城镇群规划及建设提供更加合理的参考,结合密集城镇群客流分布预测对应的研究区域空间跨度较大的特点,将研究区域分为市区、市区外区域2个层级,分别进行交通小区划分。采用适用性较广的最大熵模型进行客流分布预测,同时考虑到空间距离对密集城镇群客流分布的影响权重较大,借鉴重力分布模型的思想,引入广义出行费用反映交通阻抗,对最大熵模型进行修正;并分别从市区、市域2个层级构建双层最大熵模型。采用双层最大熵模型对东莞市2020年客流分布进行了预测。预测结果表明:双层最大熵模型能够减少空间范围过大的不利影响,同时双层最大熵模型相对独立,可以互为补充,更加适用于密集城镇群的客流分布预测。

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