全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

考虑停靠服务的公交到车率分布预测

, PP. 87-94

Keywords: 交通工程,公交到车率,蒙特卡罗方法,停靠服务

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

?为了均衡干线上协调控制和公交优先信号之间的矛盾,对干线上关键断面的公交到车率进行了分析和预测。根据干线的道路条件,界定干线上若干个关键断面;统计仿真检测数据,按较小的时间间隔汇总和统计不同周期内的车辆到达率,绘制关键断面的公交到车率分布图。分析公交车进站停靠的过程,建立进站时间、停留时间的修正公式,运行蒙特卡罗数值仿真方法计算延后时间;在确定延后时间累积频率曲线基础上,通过计算平移后的面积得到间隔的延后转移比例,构建用于预测的转移矩阵;用上游断面的到车率乘以转移矩阵预测得到下游断面的到车率。结果表明:蒙特卡罗数值仿真方法是可行的,公交到车率分布的预测相对误差较小,说明基于转移矩阵的到车率预测方法是有效的。

References

[1]  张昌禄,翟润平.交通干线信号协调控制方法综述[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2007,13(1):87-90. ZHANG Chang-lu,ZHAI Run-ping.Survey on Traffic Artery Signal Coordination Control[J].Journal of Chinese People's Public Security University:Science and Technology,2007,13(1):87-90.
[2]  LUO Zhen-ke,LIU Yue,Guo Chen. Operational Characteristics of Mixed Traffic Flow Under Bi-direction Environment Using Cellular Automaton[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering: English Edition,2014,1(6):383-392.
[3]  别一鸣.公交车行程时间预测方法研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2009. BIE Yi-ming.Research on the Predicting Method of Bus Travel Time[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2009.
[4]  左忠义,汪 磊.公交到站时间实时预测信息发布技术研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2013,13(1):63-68. ZUO Zhong-yi,WANG Lei.Bus Arrival Time Forecasting and Real-time Information Publication Technology[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2013,13(1):63-68.
[5]  周雪梅,彭昌溆,宋兴昊,等.基于前车数据的动态公交车辆到站时间预测模型研究[J].交通与运输:学术版,2011(2):52-56. ZHOU Xue-mei,PENG Chang-xu,SONG Xing-hao,et al.Prediction Model of Dynamic Bus Arrival Time Based on the Front Bus Data[J].Traffic & Transportation:Academic Edition,2011(2):52-56.
[6]  PADMANABAN R P S,DIVAKAR K,VANAJAKSHI L,et al.Development of a Real-time Bus Arrival Prediction System for Indian Traffic Conditions[J].IET Intelligent Transport Systems,2010,4(3):189-200.
[7]  SHAW A A,GOPALAN N P.Finding Frequent Trajectories by Clustering and Sequential Pattern Mining[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering:English Edition,2014,1(6):393-403.
[8]  胡 华,高云峰,刘志钢.基于AVL数据的公交到站时间实时预测模型[J].重庆交通大学学报:自然科学版,2012,31(5):1014-1017. HU Hua,GAO Yun-feng,LIU Zhi-gang.Dynamic Prediction Model of Bus Arrival Time Based on AVL Data[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Natural Science,2012,31(5):1014-1017.
[9]  YU B,LAM W H K,TAM M L.Bus Arrival Time Prediction at Bus Stop with Multiple Routes[J].Transportation Research Part C,2011,19(6):1157-1170.
[10]  KADALI B R,RATHI N,PERUMAL V.Evaluation of Pedestrian Mid-block Road Crossing Behaviour Using Artificial Neural Network[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering:English Edition,2014,1(2):111-119.
[11]  于 滨,杨忠振,曾庆成.基于SVM和Kalman滤波的公交车到站时间预测模型[J].中国公路学报,2008,21(2):89-92. YU Bin,YANG Zhong-zhen,ZENG Qing-cheng.Bus Arrival Time Prediction Model Based on Support Vector Machine and Kalman Filter[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2008,21(2):89-92.
[12]  SADAT ZADEH S M T,ANWAR T,BASIRAT M.A Survey on Application of Artificial Intelligence for Bus Arrival Time Prediction[J].Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology,2012,46(1):516-525.
[13]  李海姣,陆 建.基于交通流理论的公交站点间行程时间预测[J].交通信息与安全,2012,30(3):29-32. LI Hai-jiao,LU Jian.Travel Time Prediction Between Bus Stops Based on Traffic Flow Theory[J].Journal of Transportation Information and Safety,2012,30(3):29-32.
[14]  龙 佳.公交车到站时间分布规律及其运行可靠性分析[D].长沙:中南大学,2012. LONG Jia.A Study on Distribution of Bus Arrival Time and Reliability of Bus Operation[D].Changsha:Central South University,2012.
[15]  朱顺应,管菊香,王 红,等.交通分布预测模糊重力模型[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版, 2008,38(4):727-731. ZHU Shun-ying,GUAN Ju-xiang,WANG Hong,et al.Fuzzy Gravity Model of Traffic Distribution Forecast[J].Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,2008,38(4):727-731.
[16]  SEMEIDA A M.Derivation of Travel Demand Forecasting Models for Low Population Areas:The Case of Port Said Governorate,North East Egypt[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering:English Edition,2014,1(3):196-208.
[17]  MAHER M.A Comparison of the Use of the Cell Transmission and Platoon Dispersion Models in TRANSYT 13[J].Transportation Planning and Technology,2010,34(1):71-85.
[18]  BONNESON J A,PRATT M P,VANDEHEY M A.Predicting Arrival Flow Profiles and Platoon Dispersion for Urban Street Segments[J].Transportation Research Record,2010,2173:28-35.
[19]  DOUST K.Toward a Typology of Sustainability for Cities[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering:English Edition,2014,1(3):180-195.
[20]  谢明隆.公共交通中的行程时间预测方法研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2011. XIE Ming-long.Research on the Predicting Method of Bus Travel Time[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2011.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133