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基于扩展拉丁超立方采样的电力系统概率潮流计算

, PP. 163-170

Keywords: 电力系统,概率潮流,相关性,拉丁超立方采样,扩展拉丁超立方采样,蒙特卡罗模拟法

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Abstract:

概率潮流分析中,拉丁超立方采样(Latinhypercubesampling,LHS)算法比简单蒙特卡罗仿真(MonteCarlosimulation,MCS)的效率要高,但是传统LHS(conventionalLHS,CLHS)算法采样数必须事先确定并且固定。针对现有CLHS技术的不足,提出了扩展拉丁超立方采样算法(ExtendedLHS,ELHS)并应用于概率潮流计算。扩展方法根据已有的N点LHS采样构造2N点LHS采样并保证扩展前后的相关性相近,在增加采样数的同时保留已有的潮流计算结果。由于采样数无法事先确定,因此提出了以扩展前后估计值变化量的相对值作为ELHS的实用化收敛判据。采用MCS、CLHS和ELHS方法分别对IEEE30节点和IEEE118节点系统进行概率潮流分析,所提出的方法能够在保证计算精度的前提下获得ELHS在不同采样数下的收敛趋势。算例结果证明了所提方法的高效性、精确性和易扩展性。

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