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-  2011 

中国气温未来情景的降尺度模拟

DOI: 10.11821/yj2011110010

Keywords: 气温,情景,降尺度模拟,HASM方法,中国

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Abstract:

摘要: 由于GCM模拟的气温数据分辨率不高,很难用于区域尺度上各种生态系统的模拟。本文基于长时间序列(1964~2007年)的全国气温观测数据,结合经纬度数据、以及DEM、坡向、坡度等系列地形特征数据,利用空间统计方法,在构建年平均气温降尺度模型的基础上,运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a三种情景1961~1990、2010~2039、2040~2069、2070~2099年时段的全国未来平均气温进行高精度曲面模拟。模拟结果显示,在四个时段内,A1Fi、A2a和B2a三种情景的全国未来平均气温均呈持续上升趋势。其中,平均气温在A1Fi情景中上升速度最快,B2a情景中增速最慢;A1Fi和A2a两种情景的平均气温均呈加速上升和增加趋势,而B2a情景的平均气温则呈减速上升和增加趋势。本文构建的降尺度模拟方法可以有效地实现IPCC GCM的低分辨率的气温未来情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率气温数据

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