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基于高速公路收费数据的行程时间可靠性模型研究

, PP. 110-115

Keywords: 交通工程,行程时间,可靠性,收费数据,正态分布,概率,统计

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Abstract:

为出行者提供更及时、准确、可靠的行程时间信息,是提高公众出行满意度的主要途径之一.海量的高速公路联网收费数据中蕴含着大量有价值的信息,当前对海量收费数据的知识挖掘技术研究相对较少.利用高速公路收费数据,分析了路段行程时间概率分布特征,多种分布拟合及分布假设检验结果表明,利用正态分布表征路段行程时间分布是合理,可接受的;建立了基于正态分布的路段行程时间可靠性模型,并给出了模型参数估计方法;进而根据路段行程时间的相关性,建立了路径行程时间可靠性模型;在此基础上,利用概率论的全概率原理和交通分配模型中的Logit路径选择模型,建立的OD对间的行程时间可靠性模型.

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