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基于季节ARIMA模型的公路交通量预测

, PP. 124-128

Keywords: 交通工程,交通量,季节ARIMA模型,预测

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Abstract:

为了提高公路交通量季节性预测的精度,在介绍一般ARIMA模型的基础上,推导出一种具有周期的季节ARI-MA模型的一般表达式,以及使用这种模型进行建模和预报的一般过程。在实证分析中,先用傅立叶周期分析法检验时间序列的周期性并求出周期长度,然后用Eviews软件对时间序列作平稳性检验以及实现模型的识别、建立、选择与预测过程。与三个常用季节预测模型分组回归模型、可变季节指数预测模型和季节周期回归模型相比,季节ARIMA模型的预测精度最高。研究结果对于更为科学准确地预测公路交通量具有一定意义。

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