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引入忠诚度变量的城际出行方式动态选择行为研究

, PP. 123-129

Keywords: 交通工程,Mixed,Logit模型,城际出行选择,动态特性,忠诚度变量

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Abstract:

针对中国城市群的快速形成与发展,结合城市群城际出行特点,研究城市群城际出行方式选择行为。基于非集计理论,对效用函数引入刻画动态选择行为的忠诚度变量,抓住了出行者出行方式选择的关联性。利用了平滑指数计算忠诚度变量,既反映了忠诚度的持续性也考虑了突变性。将忠诚度变量作为影响因素引入模型的可观测效用部分,建立出行者城际出行方式选择MixedLogit模型。在大量调查问卷基础上,通过对引入前后的模型对比分析计算得出,忠诚度变量加入后,模型中其他的出行影响因素效用强度明显削弱,其产生的正效用证明了城际出行选择是一种带有倾向性的行为反应,具有某种出行方式选择的持续性、依赖性和突变性,说明出行者过往的出行体验对选择心理具有显著的影响,也说明构建的模型很好地还原了出行方式选择的动态特性。

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