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地理学报 2012

淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟

DOI: 10.11821/xb201203011, PP. 398-409

杜鸿,夏军,曾思栋,佘敦先,张永勇,严子奇

Keywords: 淮河流域,极端径流,极值分布,阈值选取

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Abstract:

以淮河流域蚌埠闸以上20个水文站点1956-2010年日径流量观测数据资料为基础,采用游程检验、趋势检验和Mann-Kendall检验法分析年最大日径流量的变化规律。分别采用年最大值法(annualmaximum,AM)和超门限峰值法(peaksoverthreshold,POT)抽取径流序列样本,运用广义极值分布(generalizedextremevaluedistribution,GEV)和广义帕累托分布(generalizedParetodistribution,GPD)两种极值统计模型对规范化样本进行拟合,分析淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律。研究表明1956-2010年,淮河流域蚌埠闸以上的研究站点中,10个站点的年最大日径流量有减少的趋势,另外10个站点有不显著的增加趋势。极端径流事件大多发生在20世纪60、70年代,且以汛期居多。淮河流域的极端径流主要来自淮河干流、淮南山区和伏牛山区。使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)法检验发现,GEV和GPD分布分别能较好的拟合AM和POT序列。采用百分位阈值法、平均超出量函数图法和超定量洪峰法三种方法选取阈值,对于淮河流域的极端径流事件模拟而言,百分位阈值法较好。

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