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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201407013, PP. 1013-1024
Keywords: 影响因素,时空变化,寒潮,Sen+Mann-Kendall分析法,内蒙古,分段线性回归
Abstract:
利用内蒙古及其周边121个气象台站1960-2013年逐日最低气温数据，辅以分段线性回归模型、趋势分析及相关分析等方法，本文探讨了近53年内蒙古寒潮频次的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究发现（1）近53年内蒙古单站寒潮频次总体呈下降趋势，降速为-0.5次/10a（-2.4~1.2次/10a），其中1991年之前降速为-1.1次/10a（-3.3~2.5次/10a），而1991年之后呈增加趋势，增速为0.45次/10a（-4.4~4.2次/10a）；春季寒潮变化趋势与年变化趋势一致，且在各季节中变化最为显著；寒潮频次年内变化呈“双峰”结构特征，且以11月最多；（2）空间上，内蒙古单站寒潮频次具有显著的空间差异特征，高发区集中在内蒙古的北部和中部地区，且北部高于中部。年代尺度对比来看，20世纪60-90年代寒潮高频区域范围在减少、低频区域范围在增加；而21世纪初期高频区域范围有所增加，增加区主要为内蒙古东部的图里河、小二沟，以及中部的西乌珠穆沁旗等地；（3）就年尺度而言，寒潮主要受AO、NAO、CA、APVII和CQ控制，而各季节驱动因素有所差别，冬季寒潮与AO、NAO、SHI、CA、TPI、APVII、CW和IZ均达到显著相关关系，说明冬季寒潮受多种因素共同控制；秋季寒潮主要受CA和IM影响；而春季寒潮与CA和APVII关系显著。
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