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珠江流域极端降雨时空变化规律及气候影响因素研究
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Abstract:
依据珠江流域41个气象站1960~2012年的日降雨资料，定义了5个极端降雨指标(极端降雨总量、极端降雨日数、极端降雨平均强度、最大1d降雨量、最大连续3d降雨量)及通过将五者叠加得到的极端降雨综合指数，运用Mann-Kendall及小波分析等方法对珠江流域极端降雨时空变化特征规律及气候影响因子进行了研究。结果表明：1) 珠江流域大部分地区极端降雨呈上升趋势，预示着流域发生洪涝灾害的可能性增加，防洪压力增大。2) 近53年流域极端降雨未发生显著突变。3) 流域极端降雨具有长期记忆性，即未来仍呈不显著增加趋势。4) 流域极端降雨存在2.2~6.5a的主振荡周期，且以短周期演变为主，长周期变化不明显，具有多尺度周期振荡特征。5) 交叉小波分析结果表明，ENSO、太阳黑子活动是珠江流域极端降雨的主要影响因素。
Based
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