%0 Journal Article
%T 珠江流域极端降雨时空变化规律及气候影响因素研究<br>Study on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Its Affecting Factors of Climate in the Pearl River Basin
%A 吴旭树
%A 王兆礼
%A 赖成光
%A 陈晓宏
%J Journal of Water Resources Research
%P 402-408
%@ 2166-5982
%D 2013
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/JWRR.2013.26057
%X <span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">依据珠江流域</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">41</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">个气象站</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">1960~2012</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">年的日降雨资料，定义了</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">5</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">个极端降雨指标</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">(</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">极端降雨总量、极端降雨日数、极端降雨平均强度、最大</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">1d</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">降雨量、最大连续</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">3d</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">降雨量</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">及通过将五者叠加得到的极端降雨综合指数，运用</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">Mann-Kendall</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">及小波分析等方法对珠江流域极端降雨时空变化特征规律及气候影响因子进行了研究。结果表明：</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">1) </span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">珠江流域大部分地区极端降雨呈上升趋势，预示着流域发生洪涝灾害的可能性增加，防洪压力增大。</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2) </span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">近</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">53</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">年流域极端降雨未发生显著突变。</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">3) </span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">流域极端降雨具有长期记忆性，即未来仍呈不显著增加趋势。</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">4) </span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">流域极端降雨存在</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2.2~6.5a</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">的主振荡周期，且以短周期演变为主，长周期变化不明显，具有多尺度周期振荡特征。</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">5) </span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">交叉小波分析结果表明，</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">ENSO</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">、太阳黑子活动是珠江流域极端降雨的主要影响因素。&lt;br&gt;&nbsp;<span style=\"font-size:10pt;\"><span style=\"font-family:Times New Roman;\">Based
%K 极端降雨；时空变化特征；气候影响因子；小波分析；珠江流域<br> Extreme Precipitation
%K Spatial and Temporal Characteristics
%K Affecting Factors of Climate
%K Wavelet Analysis
%K The Pearl River Basin
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=12882