全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

Six Temperature Proxies of Scots Pine from the Interior of Northern Fennoscandia Combined in Three Frequency Ranges

DOI: 10.1155/2014/578761

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Six chronologies based on the growth of Scots pine from the inland of northern Fennoscandia were built to separately enhance low, medium, and higher frequencies in growth variability in 1000–2002. Several periodicities of growth were found in common in these data. Five of the low-frequency series have a significant oscillatory mode at 200–250 years of cycle length. Most series also have strong multidecadal scale variability and significant peaks at 33, 67, or 83–125 years. Reconstruction models for mean July and June–August as well as three longer period temperatures were built and compared using stringent verification statistics. We describe main differences in model performance ( = 0.53–0.62) between individual proxies as well as their various averages depending on provenance and proxy type, length of target period, and frequency range. A separate medium-frequency chronology (a proxy for June–August temperatures) is presented, which is closely similar in amplitude and duration to the last two cycles of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The good synchrony between these two series is only hampered by a 10-year difference in timing. Recognizing a strong medium-frequency component in Fennoscandian climate proxies helps to explain part of the uncertainties in their 20th century trends. 1. Introduction Several recent studies have discussed the potential of high-resolution proxies based on the growth of Scots pine from northern Fennoscandia for reconstruction of summer temperatures in particular at the low-frequency scale of variability [1–5]. The main concern has generally been the interesting temperature difference between medieval times, Little Ice Age, and the modern period viewing recent and projected warming within the context of natural variability. Less attention is usually paid to the strong multidecadal component of temperature variability in the observational as well as proxy records, which may seriously hamper the identification of an amplified warming signal in the last century in the Arctic and surrounding regions [6]. Some internal climate controls may have influenced regional climate simultaneously with the carbon dioxide induced warming, and Fennoscandian temperature proxies may have recorded both types of potentially coinciding, interacting, or even diverging signals in the decadal-to-centennial scales of variability. Multidecadal variability in Fennoscandian summertime climate may well be related to the AMO (sea surface temperatures (SST)), which has a period of about 40–80 years, suggested to arise from predictable internal

References

[1]  K. R. Briffa, V. V. Shishov, T. M. Melvin et al., “Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 363, no. 1501, pp. 2269–2282, 2008.
[2]  U. Büntgen, C. C. Raible, D. Frank et al., “Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500–2100 AD,” PLoS ONE, vol. 6, no. 9, Article ID e25133, 2011.
[3]  J. Esper, U. Büntgen, M. Timonen, and D. C. Frank, “Variability and extremes of northern Scandinavian summer temperatures over the past two millennia,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 88-89, pp. 1–9, 2012.
[4]  D. McCarroll, N. Loader, R. Jalkanen et al., “A, 1200-year multi-proxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe,” Holocene, vol. 23, pp. 471–484, 2013.
[5]  T. M. Melvin, H. Grudd, and K. R. Briffa, “Potential bias in “updating” tree-ring chronologies using regional curve standardisation: re-processing 1500 years of Tornetr?sk density and ring-width data,” Holocene, vol. 23, pp. 364–373, 2013.
[6]  I. V. Polyakov, G. V. Alekseev, R. V. Bekryaev et al., “Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 29, no. 18, pp. 25-1–25-4, 2002.
[7]  R. A. Kerr, “A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries,” Science, vol. 288, no. 5473, pp. 1984–1986, 2000.
[8]  M. E. Schlesinger and N. Ramankutty, “An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years,” Nature, vol. 367, no. 6465, pp. 723–726, 1994.
[9]  I. V. Polyakov, R. V. Bekryaev, G. V. Alekseev et al., “Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime arctic, 1875–2000,” Journal of Climatology, vol. 16, pp. 2067–2077, 2003.
[10]  K. R. Briffa, P. D. Jones, T. S. Bartholin et al., “Fennoscandian summers from ad 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 111–119, 1992.
[11]  H. H. Lamb, Climate-Present, Past and Future, Methuen, London, UK, 1992.
[12]  K. R. Briffa, P. D. Jones, J. R. Pilcher, and M. K. Hughes, “Reconstructing summer temperatures in northern Fennoscandinavia back to AD 1700 using tree-ring data from Scots pine,” Arctic & Alpine Research, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 385–394, 1988.
[13]  K. R. Briffa, T. S. Bartholin, D. Eckstein et al., “A 1,400-year tree-ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia,” Nature, vol. 346, no. 6283, pp. 434–439, 1990.
[14]  S. T. Gray, L. J. Graumlich, J. L. Betancourt, and G. T. Pederson, “A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31, no. 12, 2004.
[15]  J. Esper, E. R. Cook, and F. H. Schweingruber, “Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability,” Science, vol. 295, no. 5563, pp. 2250–2253, 2002.
[16]  M. Lindholm, Reconstruction of past climate from ring-width chronologies of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at the northern forest limit in Fennoscandia [Dissertation], University of Joensuu, 1996.
[17]  M. Lindholm, T. Aalto, H. Grudd, D. McCarroll, M. Ogurtsov, and R. Jalkanen, “Common temperature signal in four well-replicated tree growth series from northern Fennoscandia,” Journal of Quaternary Science, vol. 27, pp. 828–834, 2012.
[18]  M. Lindstr?m, “Northernmost Scandinavia in the geological perspective,” Ecological Bulletin, vol. 38, pp. 17–37, 1987.
[19]  T. Ahti, L. H?met-Ahti, and J. Jalas, “Vegetation zones and their sections in northwestern Europe,” Annles Botanici Fennici, vol. 5, pp. 169–211, 1968.
[20]  S. Tuhkanen, “A circumboreal system of climatic- phytogeographical regions,” Acta Botanica Fennica, vol. 127, pp. 1–50, 1984.
[21]  H. Grudd, “Tornetr?sk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 31, no. 7-8, pp. 843–857, 2008.
[22]  H. Grudd, K. R. Briffa, W. Karlén, T. S. Bartholin, P. D. Jones, and B. Kromer, “A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability expressed on annual to millennial timescales,” Holocene, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 657–665, 2002.
[23]  M. Lindholm and R. Jalkanen, “Subcentury scale variability in height-increment and tree-ring width chronologies of Scots pine since AD 745 in northern Fennoscandia,” Holocene, vol. 22, no. 5, pp. 571–577, 2012.
[24]  Y. M. Kononov, M. Friedrich, and T. Boettger, “Regional summer temperature reconstruction in the Khibiny Low Mountains (Kola Peninsula, NW Russia) by means of tree-ring width during the last four centuries,” Arctic and Alpine Research, vol. 41, pp. 460–468, 2009.
[25]  M. Lindholm, R. Jalkanen, H. Salminen, T. Aalto, and M. Ogurtsov, “The height-increment record of summer temperature extended over the last millennium in fennoscandia,” Holocene, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 319–326, 2011.
[26]  M. Lindholm, M. Ogurtsov, T. Aalto, R. Jalkanen, and H. Salminen, “A summer temperature proxy from height increment of Scots pine since 1561 at the northern timberline in Fennoscandia,” Holocene, vol. 19, no. 8, pp. 1131–1138, 2009.
[27]  P. Klingbjer and A. Moberg, “A composite monthly temperature record from Tornedalen in northernn Sweden, 1802–2002,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 23, no. 12, pp. 1465–1494, 2003.
[28]  H. Alexandersson, “Temperature and precipitation in Sweden 1860–2001,” SMHI Meteorologi, vol. 104, 2002.
[29]  A. Kaplan, M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. C. Clement, M. B. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, “Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991,” Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans, vol. 103, no. 9, pp. 18567–18589, 1998.
[30]  K. R. Briffa, P. D. Jones, F. H. Schweingruber, S. G. Shiyatov, and E. R. Cook, “Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a 1,000-year temperature record from Siberia,” Nature, vol. 376, no. 6536, pp. 156–159, 1995.
[31]  K. R. Briffa and F. H. Schweingruber, “Recent dendroclimatic evidence of northern and central European summer temperatures,” in Climate Since A.D., 1500, R. S. Bradley and P. D. Jones, Eds., pp. 366–392, Routledge, London, UK, 1992.
[32]  E. R. Cook, B. M. Buckley, R. D. D'Arrigo, and M. J. Peterson, “Warm-season temperatures since 1600 BC reconstructed from Tasmanian tree rings and their relationship to large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 16, no. 2-3, pp. 79–91, 2000.
[33]  E. R. Cook and K. Peters, “The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring series for dendroclimatic studies,” Tree-Ring Bulletin, vol. 41, pp. 45–53, 1981.
[34]  E. R. Cook, A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization [Dissertation], University of Arizona, 1985.
[35]  E. R. Cook, K. R. Briffa, S. Shiyatov, and V. Mazepa, “Tree-ring standardization and growth-trend estimation,” in Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Science, E. R. Cook and L. Kairiukstis, Eds., pp. 104–122, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990.
[36]  V. Trouet, J. Esper, N. E. Graham, A. Baker, J. D. Scourse, and D. C. Frank, “Persistent positive north atlantic oscillation mode dominated the medieval climate anomaly,” Science, vol. 324, no. 5923, pp. 78–80, 2009.
[37]  H. F. Zhu, X. Q. Fang, X. M. Shao, and Z. Y. Yin, “Tree ring-based February-April temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountain in Northeast China and its implication for East Asian winter monsoon,” Climate of the Past, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 661–666, 2009.
[38]  H. C. Fritts, Tree Rings and Climate, Academic Press, 1975.
[39]  C. W. Stockton and H. C. Fritts, “Conditional probability of occurrence for variations in climate based on width of annual tree-rings in Arizona,” Tree-Ring Bulletin, vol. 31, pp. 3–24, 1971.
[40]  C. Valmore and J. R. LaMarche, “Frequency-dependent relationships between tree-ring series along an ecological gradient and some dendroclimatic implications,” Tree-Ring Bulletin, vol. 34, pp. 1–20, 1974.
[41]  I. Daubechies, “Recent results in wavelet applications,” Journal of Electronic Imaging, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 719–724, 1998.
[42]  S. Mallat, A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing, Academic Press, 1999.
[43]  C. Torrence and G. P. Compo, “A practical guide to wavelet analysis,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 61–78, 1998.
[44]  W. J. Burroughs, Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?Cambridge University Press, 1994.
[45]  P. S. P. Cowpertwait and A. V. Metcalfe, Introductory Time Series with R, Springer, 2009.
[46]  M. J. Crawley, The R Book, John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
[47]  D. McCarroll, M. Tuovinen, R. Campbell et al., “A critical evaluation of multi-proxy dendroclimatology in northern Finland,” Journal of Quaternary Science, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 7–14, 2011.
[48]  H. C. Fritts, “Statistical reconstruction of spatial variations in climate,” in Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Science, E. R. Cook and L. A. Kairiukstis, Eds., pp. 193–210, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990.
[49]  H. C. Fritts, T. J. Blasing, B. P. Hayden, and J. E. Kutzbach, “Multivariate techniques for specifying tree-growth and climate relationships and for reconstructing anomalies in paleoclimate,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 845–864, 1971.
[50]  G. R. Lofgren and J. H. Hunt, “Transfer functions,” in Climate From Tree Rings, M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Eds., pp. 50–56, Cambridge University Press, 1982.
[51]  E. R. Cook, K. R. Briffa, and P. D. Jones, “Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology: a review and comparison of two techniques,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 379–402, 1994.
[52]  J. Guiot, “Methods of calibration,” in Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Science, E. R. Cook and L. A. Kairiukstis, Eds., pp. 165–178, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990.
[53]  H. J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C. O. Weiss, “Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records,” Climates of the Past, vol. 9, pp. 447–453, 2013.
[54]  S. Helama, M. Timonen, J. Holopainen et al., “Summer temperature variations in Lapland during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age relative to natural instability of thermohaline circulation on multi-decadal and multi-centennial scales,” Journal of Quaternary Science, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 450–456, 2009.
[55]  T. L. Delworth and M. E. Mann, “Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 16, no. 9, pp. 661–676, 2000.
[56]  M. Timonen, J. Jiang, S. Helama, and K. Mielik?inen, “Significant changes of subseries-means in the Finnish tree-ring index of 7638 years, with comparisons to glaciological evidence from Greenland and Alps,” Quaternary International, vol. 319, pp. 143–149, 2014.
[57]  K. R. Briffa, “Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees,” Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 87–105, 2000.
[58]  P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett, and S. F. B. Tett, “High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures,” Holocene, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 455–471, 1998.
[59]  M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes, “Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 759–762, 1999.
[60]  M. Ogurtsov, M. Lindholm, and R. Jalkanen, “Will a new little ice age begin in the next few decades?” Applied Physics Research, vol. 5, pp. 70–77, 2013.
[61]  E. R. Cook, K. R. Briffa, D. M. Meko, D. A. Graybill, and G. Funkhouser, “The segment length curse' in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies,” Holocene, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 229–237, 1995.
[62]  R. D'Arrigo, R. Wilson, B. Liepert, and P. Cherubini, “On the “Divergence Problem” in Northern Forests: a review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 60, no. 3-4, pp. 289–305, 2008.
[63]  J. Esper, D. Frank, U. Büntgen, A. Verstege, R. Hantemirov, and A. V. Kirdyanov, “Trends and uncertainties in Siberian indicators of 20th century warming,” Global Change Biology, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 386–398, 2010.
[64]  S. Helama, M. Lindholm, M. Timonen, and M. Eronen, “Detection of climate signal in dendrochronological data analysis: a comparison of tree-ring standardization methods,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 79, no. 3-4, pp. 239–254, 2004.
[65]  M. Lindholm and M. Eronen, “A reconstruction of mid-summer temperatures from ring-widths of scots pine since AD 50 in northern Fennoscandia,” Geografiska Annaler A: Physical Geography, vol. 82, no. 4, pp. 527–535, 2000.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133