Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change. This study predicted the future structure of land use/cover on the basis of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and an econometric model with the socioeconomic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover in China was simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Business as Usual scenario, Rapid Economic Growth scenario and Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario. The simulation results showed that the land use/land cover in China will change continually due to the human activities and climate change, and the spatial pattern of land use/cover will also change as time goes by. Besides, the spatial pattern of land cover in China under the three scenarios is consistent on the whole, but with some regional differences. Built-up area will increase rapidly under the three scenarios, while most land cover types will show a decreasing trend to different degrees under different scenarios. The simulation results can provide an underlying land surface data and reference to the methodology research on the prediction of LUCC. 1. Introduction Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change, which has always been the focus of academia [1]. In 1995 the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) jointly launched the land use/cover change research project, and LUCC is still one of the core contents of the Global Land Project (GLP) jointly launched by IGBP and IHDP in 2005 [2, 3]. Research shows that LUCC not only affected the terrestrial ecosystem biodiversity, energy balance, and water cycle but also exerted influence on climate and social economy [4, 5]. LUCC plays an important role in the regional and global environmental change, and its effects can be beyond the time scale through the global land-ocean interaction [6]. The core part of researches on LUCC includes the driving force, driving mechanism, effects, and model simulation of LUCC [7, 8]. In the past decades, scholars of different fields have paid great attention to LUCC, mainly focusing on the spatiotemporal change, driving mechanism, eco-environmental impacts, and simulation of LUCC [8, 9]. The research on the spatiotemporal analysis of LUCC mainly focuses on the change in quantity and spatial pattern [10], while the research on the driving mechanism of LUCC plays an important role in revealing the basic processes of LUCC and its driving
References
[1]
P. H. Verburg, “Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models,” Landscape Ecology, vol. 21, no. 8, pp. 1171–1183, 2006.
[2]
I. Secretariat, “GLP (2005) science plan and implementation strategy,” Tech. Rep. 53, IGBP, Stockholm, Sweden, 2005.
[3]
B. L. Turner, D. Skole, S. Sanderson, G. Fischer, L. Fresco, and R. Leemans, “Land-use and land-cover change. Science/Research plan,” Global Change Report, IGBP, Stockholm, Sweden, 1995.
[4]
A. Berg, C. Papageorgiou, C. A. Pattillo, and N. Spatafora, “The end of an era? The medium-and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries,” IMF Working Papers, 2010.
[5]
J. Liu and J. Diamond, “China's environment in a globalizing world,” Nature, vol. 435, no. 7046, pp. 1179–1186, 2005.
[6]
J. Y. Liu and X. Z. Deng, “Progress of the research methodologies on the temporal and spatial process of LUCC,” Chinese Science Bulletin, vol. 55, no. 14, pp. 1354–1362, 2010.
[7]
R. S. Yin, Q. Xiang, J. T. Xu, and X. Z. Deng, “Modeling the driving forces of the land use and land cover changes along the upper Yangtze river of China,” Environmental Management, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 454–465, 2010.
[8]
F. Hasselmann, E. Csaplovics, I. Falconer, M. Bürgi, and A. M. Hersperger, “Technological driving forces of LUCC: conceptualization, quantification, and the example of urban power distribution networks,” Land Use Policy, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 628–637, 2010.
[9]
R. Patarasuk and M. W. Binford, “Longitudinal analysis of the road network development and land-cover change in Lop Buri province, Thailand, 1989–2006,” Applied Geography, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 228–239, 2012.
[10]
Y. Liu, J. Wang, and X. Deng, “Rocky land desertification and its driving forces in the karst areas of rural Guangxi, Southwest China,” Journal of Mountain Science, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 350–357, 2008.
[11]
X. Deng, Q. Jiang, J. Zhan, S. He, and Y. Lin, “Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 495–509, 2010.
[12]
D. K. Munroe and D. Müller, “Issues in spatially explicit statistical land-use/cover change (LUCC) models: examples from western Honduras and the Central Highlands of Vietnam,” Land Use Policy, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 521–530, 2007.
[13]
A. Veldkamp and E. F. Lambin, “Predicting land-use change,” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, vol. 85, no. 1–3, pp. 1–6, 2001.
[14]
R. G. Pontius Jr. and L. C. Schneider, “Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA,” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, vol. 85, no. 1–3, pp. 239–248, 2001.
[15]
E. F. Lambin, B. L. Turner, H. J. Geist et al., “The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 261–269, 2001.
[16]
H. Zhao, E. Uchida, X. Deng, and S. Rozelle, “Do trees grow with the economy? A spatial analysis of the determinants of forest cover change in Sichuan, China,” Environmental and Resource Economics, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 61–82, 2011.
[17]
A. Veldkamp and L. O. Fresco, “CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 85, no. 2-3, pp. 253–270, 1996.
[18]
P. H. Verburg and Y. Chen, “Multiscale characterization of land-use patterns in China,” Ecosystems, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 369–385, 2000.
[19]
P. H. Verburg, G. H. J. de Koning, K. Kok, A. Veldkamp, and J. Bouma, “A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 116, no. 1, pp. 45–61, 1999.
[20]
T. Zhang and D. Zhang, “Agent-based simulation of consumer purchase decision-making and the decoy effect,” Journal of Business Research, vol. 60, no. 8, pp. 912–922, 2007.
[21]
R. White and G. Engelen, “High-resolution integrated modelling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems,” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 383–400, 2000.
[22]
J. Liu, M. Liu, D. Zhuang, Z. Zhang, and X. Deng, “Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000,” Science in China Series D, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 373–384, 2003.
[23]
H. J. Geist and E. F. Lambin, “Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation: tropical forests are disappearing as the result of many pressures, both local and regional, acting in various combinations in different geographical locations,” BioScience, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 143–150, 2002.
[24]
X. Deng, H. Su, and J. Zhan, “Integration of multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of land systems,” Sensors, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 620–634, 2008.
[25]
F. Chen and G. Liu, “Population aging in China,” in International Handbook of Population Aging, vol. 1, pp. 157–172, 2009.
[26]
W. Lutz and K. C. Samir, “Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 365, no. 1554, pp. 2779–2791, 2010.
[27]
K. C. Samir, B. Barakat, A. Goujon, V. Skirbekk, W. Sanderson, and W. Lutz, “Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005–2050,” Demographic Research, vol. 22, no. 15, pp. 383–472, 2010.
[28]
R. M. Northam, “Population size, relative location, and declining urban centers: conterminous United States, 1940–1960,” Land Economics, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 313–322, 1969.
[29]
R. M. Northam, “Vacant urban land in the American city,” Land Economics, vol. 47, no. 4, pp. 345–355, 1971.
[30]
X. Deng, Modeling the Dynamics and Consequences of Land System Change, Higher Education Press, Beijng, China, 2011.
