%0 Journal Article
%T Projection of the Spatially Explicit Land Use/Cover Changes in China, 2010¨C2100
%A Yongwei Yuan
%A Tao Zhao
%A Weimin Wang
%A Shaohui Chen
%A Feng Wu
%J Advances in Meteorology
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/908307
%X Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change. This study predicted the future structure of land use/cover on the basis of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and an econometric model with the socioeconomic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover in China was simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Business as Usual scenario, Rapid Economic Growth scenario and Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario. The simulation results showed that the land use/land cover in China will change continually due to the human activities and climate change, and the spatial pattern of land use/cover will also change as time goes by. Besides, the spatial pattern of land cover in China under the three scenarios is consistent on the whole, but with some regional differences. Built-up area will increase rapidly under the three scenarios, while most land cover types will show a decreasing trend to different degrees under different scenarios. The simulation results can provide an underlying land surface data and reference to the methodology research on the prediction of LUCC. 1. Introduction Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change, which has always been the focus of academia [1]. In 1995 the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) jointly launched the land use/cover change research project, and LUCC is still one of the core contents of the Global Land Project (GLP) jointly launched by IGBP and IHDP in 2005 [2, 3]. Research shows that LUCC not only affected the terrestrial ecosystem biodiversity, energy balance, and water cycle but also exerted influence on climate and social economy [4, 5]. LUCC plays an important role in the regional and global environmental change, and its effects can be beyond the time scale through the global land-ocean interaction [6]. The core part of researches on LUCC includes the driving force, driving mechanism, effects, and model simulation of LUCC [7, 8]. In the past decades, scholars of different fields have paid great attention to LUCC, mainly focusing on the spatiotemporal change, driving mechanism, eco-environmental impacts, and simulation of LUCC [8, 9]. The research on the spatiotemporal analysis of LUCC mainly focuses on the change in quantity and spatial pattern [10], while the research on the driving mechanism of LUCC plays an important role in revealing the basic processes of LUCC and its driving
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/908307/