全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

Self-Organized Criticality of Rainfall in Central China

DOI: 10.1155/2012/203682

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Rainfall is a complexity dynamics process. In this paper, our objective is to find the evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC) for rain datasets in China by employing the theory and method of SOC. For this reason, we analyzed the long-term rain records of five meteorological stations in Henan, a central province of China. Three concepts, that is, rain duration, drought duration, accumulated rain amount, are proposed to characterize these rain events processes. We investigate their dynamics property by using scale invariant and found that the long-term rain processes in central China indeed exhibit the feature of self-organized criticality. The proposed theory and method may be suitable to analyze other datasets from different climate zones in China. 1. Introduction China is not only a big country for its population but also a big agriculture one. Rain is the main source of irrigation water, and it plays a key role in the crop growing period. No rain will cause drought while storm may cause flood. To keep sufficient agriculture production sustainable, it is necessary to identify the role of the rain clearly and to understand the characteristics of the rain deeply. In particular, analyzing the rain in central China is more important because this region is the main crop source and the population density is very high. Rainis liquidprecipitation, as opposed to nonliquid kinds of precipitation such assnow andhail and so on. Rainfall is the result of the atmosphere movement, which is influenced by sun radiation, sea water evaporation, and earth rotation. In the fact, the long-term rain record is a time series which can be regarded as a random process. The rainfall process is actually a complexity system because there are too many influencing factors. In previous studies, many mathematical methods have been applied to find the rainfall pattern, such as periodic, trend, change point, and fractal. Based on the last 1033 years historic data set, Jiang analyzed the temporal and spatial climate variability by using a “Mexican hat” wavelet transform [1]. Bordi used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess the climatic condition of this region and applied principal component to capture the pattern of co-variability of the index at different gauge stations [2]. The results suggest that the northern part of east-central China is experiencing dry conditions more frequently from the 1970s onwards indicated by a negative trend in the SPI time series. Applying the binary cubic interpolation and optimal fitting method, Wang et al. set up a statistical model [3]

References

[1]  J. Jiang, D. Zhang, and K. Fraedrich, “HIstoric climate variability of wetness in east China (960–1992): a wavelet analysis,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 17, no. 9, pp. 969–981, 1997.
[2]  I. Bordi, K. Fraedrich, J. M. Jiang, and A. Sutera, “Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 79, no. 1-2, pp. 81–91, 2004.
[3]  Q. Wang, X. Liu, and A. Fang, “Mathematical model of rain fall forecast,” in Proceedings of the ETP International Conference on Future Computer and Communication (FCC '09), pp. 112–115, 2009.
[4]  P.-S. Yu, C.-J. Chen, and S.-J. Chen, “Application of gray and fuzzy methods for rainfall forecasting,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 339–345, 2000.
[5]  I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, B. Febres De Power, M. B. Sharifi, and K. P. Georgakakos, “Chaos in rainfall,” Water Resources Research, vol. 25, no. 7, pp. 1667–1675, 1989.
[6]  Z. Wang and W. Li, “Prediction of monthly precipitation in Kunming based on the chaotic time series analysis,” in Proceedings of the 4th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention, Atlantis Press, 2010.
[7]  Z. Wang and Y. Zhang, “Chaos analysis of time series of kunming annual precipitation,” Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, vol. 32, 2, pp. 8–10, 2011.
[8]  S. Bellie, S.-Y. Liong, and C.-Y. Liaw, “Evidence of chaotic behavior in Singapore rainfall,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 34, 2, pp. 301–310, 1998.
[9]  B. Sivakumar, S.-Y. Liong, C.-Y. Liaw, and K.-K. Phoon, “Singapore rainfall behavior: Chaotic?” vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 38–48, 1999.
[10]  M. C. Valverde Ramírez, H. F. De Campos Velho, and N. J. Ferreira, “Artificial neural network technique for rainfall forecasting applied to the S?o Paulo region,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 301, no. 1–4, pp. 146–162, 2005.
[11]  P. Bak, How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality, Springer, New York, NY, USA, 1996.
[12]  P. Bak and S. Boettcher, “Self-organized criticality and punctuated equilibria,” Physica D, vol. 107, no. 2-4, pp. 143–150, 1997.
[13]  P. Bak, C. Tang, and K. Wiesenfeld, “Self-organized criticality: An explanation of the 1/f noise,” Physical Review Letters, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 381–384, 1987.
[14]  C. Tang and P. Bak, “Critical exponents and scaling relations for self-organized critical phenomena,” Physical Review Letters, vol. 60, no. 23, pp. 2347–2350, 1988.
[15]  K. Christensen, Z. Olami, and P. Bak, “Deterministic 1/f noise in nonconserative models of self-organized criticality,” Physical Review Letters, vol. 68, no. 16, pp. 2417–2420, 1992.
[16]  S. C. Manrubia and R. V. Solé, “Self-organized criticality in rainforest dynamics,” Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 523–541, 1996.
[17]  A. Sarkar and P. Barat, “Analysis of rainfall records in India: self-organized criticality and scaling,” Fractals, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 289–293, 2006.
[18]  P. Lehmann and D. Or, “Concepts of Self-Organized Criticality for modeling triggering of shallow landslides,” Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 10, no. 2, 2008.
[19]  M. J. Van De Wiel and T. J. Coulthard, “Self-organized criticality in river basins: challenging sedimentary records of environmental change,” Geology, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 87–90, 2010.
[20]  O. Peters and K. Christensen, “Rain viewed as relaxational events,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 328, no. 1-2, pp. 46–55, 2006.
[21]  O. Peters and J. D. Neelin, “Critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation,” Nature Physics, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 393–396, 2006.
[22]  R. F. S. Andrade, H. J. Schellnhuber, and M. Claussen, “Analysis of rainfall records: possible relation to self-organized criticality,” Physica A, vol. 254, no. 3-4, pp. 557–568, 1998.
[23]  O. Peters and K. Christensen, “Rain: relaxations in the sky,” Physical Review E, vol. 66, no. 3, Article ID 036120, 9 pages, 2002.
[24]  O. Peters, C. Hertlein, and K. Christensen, “A complexity view of rainfall,” Physical Review Letters, vol. 88, no. 1, Article ID 018701, 4 pages, 2002.
[25]  G. Pruessner and O. Peters, “Self-organized criticality and absorbing states: lessons from the Ising model,” Physical Review E, vol. 73, no. 2, Article ID 025106, 4 pages, 2006.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133