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拉萨河流域未来降水情景预估
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Abstract:
拉萨河流域是西藏地区政治、经济、文化中心，在全球气候变暖影响下，流域气候变化显著，针对拉萨河流域开展气候变化研究具有重要意义。本文基于气象站点实测数据和ERA-40与MIROC3.2_medres大尺度网格数据，采用统计降尺度模型Automated Statistical Downscaling(ASD)，对拉萨河流域日降水量进行降尺度研究，在此基础上分析了流域2046~2065年与2081~2100年降水量变化情景。结果显示：ASD模型能够较好地模拟流域降水基本特征，各站点的解释方差(R2)达到13%~22%，率定期与验证期的均方根误差(RMSE)分别控制在0.25与0.53以内。未来两个时期流域降水格局变化显著，年降水量将减少10.55%~17.25%
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