%0 Journal Article
%T 拉萨河流域未来降水情景预估<br>Projection of Future Precipitation in the Lhasa 
River Basin
%A 刘文丰
%A 徐宗学
%A 李发鹏
%J Journal of Water Resources Research
%P 267-273
%@ 2166-5982
%D 2012
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/JWRR.2012.14039
%X <span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">拉萨河流域是西藏地区政治、经济、文化中心，在全球气候变暖影响下，流域气候变化显著，针对拉萨河流域开展气候变化研究具有重要意义。本文基于气象站点实测数据和</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">ERA-40</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">与</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">MIROC3.2_medres</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">大尺度网格数据，采用统计降尺度模型</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">Automated Statistical Downscaling</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">(</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">ASD</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">，对拉萨河流域日降水量进行降尺度研究，在此基础上分析了流域</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2046~2065</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">年与</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2081~2100</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">年降水量变化情景。结果显示：</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">ASD</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">模型能够较好地模拟流域降水基本特征，各站点的解释方差</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">(</span><i><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">R</span></i><sup><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">2</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">达到</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">13%~22%</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">，率定期与验证期的均方根误差</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">(</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">RMSE</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">分别控制在</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">0.25</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">与</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">0.53</span><span style=\"font-family:宋体;font-size:10pt;\">以内。未来两个时期流域降水格局变化显著，年降水量将减少</span><span style=\"font-family:'Times New Roman','serif';font-size:10pt;\">10.55%~17.25%</span><span
%K 降水；情景；降尺度；拉萨河<br>Precipitation
%K Scenarios
%K Downscaling
%K Lhasa River
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=867