Pollution load forecasting model and its application in Bohai Bay
海岸带污染负荷预测模型及其在渤海湾的应用

Aimed at characters of pollutant from coastal zone and offshore area, a coastal zone pollution load forecasting model was developed by using statistical method, gray prediction method and so on. The main goal of developing the model was to supply the technical means and scientific references for controlling, reducing and redistributing total amount of pollution load. The model included the main waste water discharging departments and solved the uncertainty problem of environment system caused by data scarcity and relation ambiguity. The estimation results had been checked up by the pollution load statistic data of near ten years in Tianjin. It could be seen from the pollution load estimation results of nitrogen, phosphorus, oil and oxygen consumption organic, that industrial wastewater discharge volume per ten thousand production values decreased year after year, and oxygen consumption organic discharge volume increased slowly. In the total discharge amount of waste water, two thirds of oxygen consumption organic and over 75% of nitrogen came from domestic sewage. Domestic sewage discharge control should be emphasized consequently.